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@FirstSquawk: Bank of Japan to consider multiple economic datasets and surveys when evaluating the country's financial environment.

@FirstSquawk: Rising interest rates set to improve earnings at Japan's megabanks, Fitch Ratings says.

BOJ: bank will consider various data, surveys in evaluating Japan's financial environment rather than depend on single indicator

The great AI trade reversal: Could India gain. The next big test for the US dollar may come not from the Federal Reserve, but from the artificial intelligence trade. The AI boom has drawn foreign capital into US mega-cap stocks, hyperscaler bonds and the infrastructure powering the technology revolution. Those flows have supported the dollar by reinforcing expectations of stronger US growth, higher interest rates and continued demand for American assets. But what happens if the trade reverses? The same capital that has been flowing into the US could begin moving out, weakening demand for the dollar. And unlike earlier market crises, when investors rushed towards the greenback, this time the selloff could be centred on US assets themselves. For India, which has been overlooked as global investors chased AI-linked opportunities in the US and parts of Asia, the reversal could offer a chance to regain foreign capital. The argument is no longer confined to market speculation. Most experts believe that the foreign money chasing returns from the AI boom could weaken the dollar's traditional safe-haven role if the trade unwinds. “The dollar will most certainly not benefit in the same way it did in the past global crisis’,” says Ritesh Jain, Founder, Pinetree Macro, a hedge fund based in the United States. The world has too many eggs in one basket The scale of the capital concentration is central to the dollar-bearish argument. Rob Subbaraman, Nomura's managing director and chief economist for global macro research, says the AI boom has masked a rising US risk premium by drawing an extraordinary share of global savings into American assets. His research shows that the ratio of US net international investment position (NIIP) liabilities to the combined NIIP assets of all net creditor nations has surged to 80%. In other words, a much larger proportion of the savings accumulated by countries that lend to the rest of the world is now invested in the US. In an interview with Moneycontrol, Subbaraman put it starkly: “The world has too many eggs in the one basket, i.e. the US.” He says that in 2010, around 20% of the overseas investments of net creditor nations were held in the US. Today, that share has seen a fourfold increase, driven substantially by the AI story. “I do think over time, we're going to start to see that get diversified out more.” The vulnerability is not just the size of foreign holdings, but the nature of those investments. Nomura's report notes that US portfolio liabilities — foreign holdings of equities and debt securities — quadrupled to $37.4 trillion in March 2026 from $9.2 trillion in March 2009. A substantial part of that increase has come from capital gains on AI-driven US equities. If investors begin to cut their exposure, even a moderate fall in foreign holdings could have a disproportionate impact on the dollar. Subbaraman's analysis argues that declines in US portfolio liabilities could exceed any corresponding decline in US holdings of foreign assets, resulting in a net reduction in the country's external liabilities and dollar depreciation. Whoever had to put money in has put it in Ritesh Jain makes a similar case, but starts with the sheer scale of the capital drawn into the AI trade. “When AI companies' share prices rise, whether through equity or their ability to raise bonds from overseas investors, that means more demand for the dollar,” he says. He points to SpaceX's $40 billion fundraising, which attracted European investors, as an example. “What will a European do now?” he asks. Ditto for other countries that have chased the AI trade. Jain argues that Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds, which have invested heavily in US technology and AI infrastructure, can’t continue deploying capital abroad at the same pace either. These funds have substantial domestic investment and rebuilding commitments, he says. “They were the biggest pool of capital,” he argues, and their priorities could shift towards their own economies. “As long as the AI trade continues to do well, US will suck away the savings or capital from the rest of the world. You have seen that happen.” Now, it has to reverse, he adds. He argues that the traditional argument that capital will flee back to the US in times of crisis is set to be broken this time. In 2008, when the Global Financial Crisis occurred, the US accounted for about 35% of global GDP and 35% of global market capitalisation. Today, its share of global GDP is around 30%, but its share of global market capitalisation has risen to 65%. “This means that whoever wanted to invest in the US has already invested,” he says. He also points to the US NIIP. “US NIIP was actually kind of positive in the year 2008. Today, US NIIP is minus 60%,” he says, adding that foreign investors hold $24-25 trillion more in US assets than the US holds in assets overseas. The pool of overseas savings available to keep financing the US, he argues, is not unlimited. Jain sees another sign of this in the dollar's relatively modest rise despite oil prices climbing to around $115 a barrel given that the US is a net exporter of oil. “The dollar should have been stronger already, but it is not,” Jain says. “When the AI trade unravels, the real weakness will come to the fore,” he adds. This time, the dollar may not be the automatic refuge Interestingly, while foreign flows into US equities have reached record high, foreign direct investment has lagged. Much of the money is therefore coming from institutional investors who can reverse portfolio allocations when valuations or growth expectations change. The consequences could play out through three channels. A retreat from US equities and corporate bonds would reduce demand for dollars; weaker AI investment would hit US growth; and a slowdown could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates, eroding the dollar's yield advantage. The market has already offered a glimpse of this possibility. Reports suggest that during a recent bout of AI-related volatility, safe-haven flows favoured the Japanese yen and Swiss franc over the dollar. Subbaraman cautions against assuming that the dollar will always benefit from a crisis. A correction could set off a feedback loop in which falling asset prices weaken confidence and growth, prompting further selling. That does not make a dollar slide inevitable or immediate. A severe funding squeeze could still produce a temporary rush for dollars. But if the AI correction becomes a US-specific reassessment of growth, valuations and capital allocation, the currency could be on the losing side. Emerging markets are not one trade For India, the opportunity lies in the possibility that global investors begin to diversify away from an increasingly crowded US trade. But a weaker dollar does not mean all emerging markets will benefit equally. At the Rising Bharat Summit, Morgan Stanley India's Ridham Desai highlighted the sharp divergence in the performance of emerging markets. South Korea and Taiwan have benefited from the AI and semiconductor boom, while India has been left behind. Korea's market, he noted, had fallen around 35% from its peak even as foreign investors had sold about $150 billion of equities this year, despite strong AI-linked earnings. The point is that emerging markets cannot be treated as one homogeneous asset class. Their exposure to technology, sector composition and earnings trajectories vary sharply. A reversal in the AI trade could hurt the markets that benefited most from the boom; it does not follow that the same money will flow indiscriminately into every other emerging market. Subbaraman makes a similar distinction. The AI investment boom, he says, has delivered “disproportionate benefits” across countries. The US has gained substantially, as have parts of Asia, including Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, China and, to some extent, Japan. Europe and India have benefited much less. “If there is a big correction, those that benefited earlier get hit hardest, but the ones that haven't benefited, don't get hit as hard,” he says. That divergence could create room for a more diversified allocation, says Subbaraman. Why India could be in the frame India has been at the receiving end of the AI-driven capital shift. Investors who found stronger earnings growth in US technology companies and Asian semiconductor businesses had little reason to increase exposure to a market that was delivering relatively weaker earnings growth. That equation may now be changing. After two years of lacklustre earnings, India's earnings growth is beginning to accelerate, while some of the markets that benefited from the AI boom may face tougher comparisons and a slower pace of growth. While growth in those companies may still be fare stronger, markets react to expectations, thus lower than expected growth will be negative for AI stocks. Subbaraman believes India's fundamentals remain sound. “India's got decent growth, long-term growth around 7% in our view right now. We feel that monetary and fiscal policies are prudent. It's got a solid financial sector,” he says. “So it's a pretty healthy, fundamentally strong economy. And as long as that's sustained, I think India will ultimately start attracting more capital inflows.” He also sees an opportunity in the next phase of AI adoption. The first phase has been about building the infrastructure and producing AI — an area dominated by the US and a handful of Asian economies. The next will be about using AI to improve productivity across businesses and economies. “But then how do you use the AI? Because that's really where you get the productivity gains,” he says. “It's not certain that that's going to be the US. It could be other countries that are much better adapters of using the AI and diffusing it into companies and economies.” That could work in India's favour. The country need not replicate the massive capital expenditure of US hyperscalers to benefit from AI; it could capture gains through adoption across services, manufacturing and other sectors. For Subbaraman, the policy test is to stay the course. “If India manages to keep going with reforms, and keeps monetary and fiscal policies prudent, and the financial sector healthy, I think over time, capital inflows will be coming back to India.” The dollar's decline, if it comes, will not by itself guarantee a return of foreign money to India. Oil prices, domestic earnings, valuations and the relative attractiveness of other markets will matter. India could benefit from a reallocation that has little to do with a sudden discovery of its merits — and much to do with investors looking beyond an increasingly crowded trade. And finally, India could find itself on the right side of one of the biggest global portfolio reallocations in years.

@FirstSquawk: Bank of Japan is tracking stock market and currency movements as part of its assessment of domestic financial conditions.

@FirstSquawk: Japan's median real borrowing costs continue to remain relatively low, BOJ says.

BOJ: central bank is scrutinising asset price moves, such as stocks and FX, in assessing Japan's financial conditions

Trump said it was 'unacceptable' for one of his former lawyers, Alina Habba Mildon, to secure a $50 million contract for herself while working at the US Department of Justice, per Reuters

@FirstSquawk: Bank of Japan notes a recent increase in real yields, especially at the longer end of the yield curve.

BOJ: average median real interest rates stay at low levels

BOJ: Japan’s real interest rates climbing recently, especially in long and super-long zones

BoE Set To Raise Rates To 4% In Fight Against Inflation – FT [链接预览] Bank of England set to raise rates to 4% in push to quell inflation

@FirstSquawk: Underlying inflation has moved towards 2% and is gradually becoming embedded at that level, the BOJ says.

BOJ: underlying inflation has picked up to about 2%, gradually embedding around that level in recent years

@FirstSquawk: BOJ expects monetary tightening to ease price pressures and provide support to consumption.

Bank of Japan: rate increases likely to ease inflation, help support consumption

India HSBC and S&P Global October final manufacturing PMI at 54.7, forecast 54.8

@FirstSquawk: INDIA (OCT) HSBC INDIA PMI MFG ACTUAL: 54.7 VS 54.9 PREVIOUS

Weekly Recap: Q3 sales surge and two-year shortfall risk for advanced gear. ASML Holding NV Sponsored ADR (EURONEXT:ASML) posted strong Q3 2026 sales, 31% QoQ shipment growth and raised FY sales to €44–€45B while warning AI demand may outstrip capacity for its most advanced lithography tools; talks with Viettel over a DUV sale stalled and Rep. Kevin Hern sold ASML shares. Previous Week Recap ASML Q3 2026 Strong Sales : ASML Q3 2026: net sales strong; shipments up 31% QoQ to 113 units. Full-year sales guided €44–€45B. Servicing boosts gross margin near 56%. FY sales ~20% YoY; net income ~48% growth. Leverage Shares AI Demand Pressure On Advanced Lithography : ASML warns it may not meet demand for its most advanced lithography machines over the next two years due to an AI-driven surge; supply limits for older gear should be milder. Reuters Viettel Talks On DUV Tool : Viettel and ASML discussed a possible sale of a DUV lithography tool for Viettel’s planned Hanoi chip plant; months of talks failed to produce a deal as of the latest report. Reuters Hern Sells ASML Stock : On Oct. 23, 2026 Rep. Kevin Hern sold $15,000–$50,000 of ASML Holding NV Sponsored ADR (ASML) stock; trading noted in semiconductor and data-storage related holdings. Benzinga

Weekly Recap: Nokia AI RAN capacity gain and L&T Technology Services R&D deal. Nokia Oyj Sponsored ADR (OMXHEX:NOKIA) rolled out the UK’s first live AI-driven RAN with O2 in London, using predictive AI to auto-adjust traffic and lift spectral efficiency ~20% and capacity, while signing a five-year deal with L&T Technology Services to build an India R&D and engineering center. Previous Week Recap Nokia Oyj Sponsored ADR First Live AI-Driven RAN : Nokia (NOKIA) and O2 completed the UK's first live AI-driven RAN feature at a London site. Nokia’s predictive AI auto-adjusted to traffic, boosting spectral efficiency ~20% and capacity. Europa Press Nokia Oyj Sponsored ADR Five-Year Deal With L&T Tech Services : Nokia (NOKIA) inked a five-year deal with L&T Technology Services to set up an offshore development center in India, supplying an engineering team for product, software, AI, automation and 5G R&D. Businessworld

【最新内容：unusual_whales @unusual_whales · 2026-11-02T04:58:00.000Z】 Investigators are pointing at North Korea's TraderTraitor group for the record Binance breach, with billions already frozen on-chain. Read more: [链接预览] Binance Confirms $6.3B Hack, Suspends Deposits and Withdrawals 【回复上下文：unusual_whales @unusual_whales · 2026-10-30T17:58:00.000Z】 BREAKING: North Korea is being blamed for stealing more than $6 billion from Binance, per the Telegraph

@FirstSquawk: Large UAE organisations to receive tailored enterprise solutions through OpenAI and Inception42's collaboration, ADMO says.

OpenAI and Inception42 to collaborate on enterprise solutions for major UAE organisations: ADMO

@FirstSquawk: UAE's government, enterprise and education sectors to receive joint AI adoption support from OpenAI and Inception42, ADMO says.

OpenAI and Inception42 to collaboratively advance AI adoption in UAE government, enterprise and education: ADMO

Inception42 and OpenAI sign five-year deal to boost frontier AI adoption in government, business and education - Admo

Mubadala, Inception42, OpenAI sign deal to use advanced AI for investment analysis, opportunity spotting, risk evaluation - ADMO

@FirstSquawk: ADNOC partners with G42 and OpenAI to deploy advanced AI technology, becoming the energy sector's first company to do so, ADMO says.

Adnoc, G42 and OpenAI sign pact, making Adnoc first energy firm to deploy OpenAI frontier technology: ADMO

@FirstSquawk: Russian forces target military infrastructure in the Odesa region of Ukraine, according to Interfax.

@FirstSquawk: Sumitomo increased natural gas and LNG trading in the U.S. and Europe amid rising energy prices, supporting higher H1 earnings, CEO says.

@FirstSquawk: Sumitomo CEO sees continued solid performance in gas trading, supported by stable U.S. operations and European expansion.

Stocks bounce as Apple earnings near, oil falls. By Wayne Cole Share markets bounced in Asia on Monday as investors hoped for Apple earnings later in the session to provide some relief from AI cash-burn worries, while oil prices slid after talks continued between Iranian and Qatari mediators. Brent futures BRN1! fell 3.3% to $109.70 a barrel, though that follows a 13.6% jump in October and tankers were still being attacked in the Gulf. US crude futures CL1! lost 3.4% to $100.58 a barrel. Apple AAPL.O has been an oasis of relative calm given it does not spend billions on data centres, and its shares have climbed for four months straight to help it unseat Nvidia NVDA as the world's most valuable listed company. Analysts are looking for quarterly earnings per share (EPS) of $2 on revenue of $113 billion, up from $1.85 in the year-earlier period. The company might also offer some guidance on how early sales of the iPhone 18 are performing with pre-orders having started in mid-October. The optimism helped S&P 500 futures ES1! edge up 0.5%, while Nasdaq futures NQ1! rallied 0.9%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq lost almost 7% in October for its worst month since the 'Liberation Day' tariff rout of April 2025. Some upbeat news is sorely needed after concerns about negative cash flow and the sheer scale of AI capex saw the cost of insuring against corporate defaults blow out last week. Intel's INTC near 29% tumble on Friday has also raised the stakes for other chip groups, including AMD AMD . An added wrinkle is the midterm US elections, where a win by Democrats in either or both houses could result in more political hurdles for data centres. Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect capex by hyperscalers to almost double to $800 billion this year, and rise further to $1.2 trillion in 2027. At the same time, they see the S&P 500 EPS growth of nearly 30% in 2026 slowing to 18% next year. "Earnings results have underscored the fundamental challenge facing equity investors — earnings growth is strong, but it is no longer accelerating," wrote Ben Snider, Goldman's chief US equity strategist, in a note. "Similarly, Q3 results support our view that AI investment spending will continue to grow but that the growth rate of AI capex is peaking." Adding to the air of unease were withdrawals from Binance as the world's biggest cryptocurrency exchange went back online on Sunday after hackers stole billions from the platform last week. Japan's Nikkei NI225 firmed 0.3%, while South Korea KOSPI added 2.6%, having shed 16% last month. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.5%. China's battered blue chips 3 399300 gained 1.3% after media reports said regulators would meet financial institutions to discuss measures to support capital markets. In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures FESX1! rose 0.3%, while DAX futures DAX1! firmed 0.2% and FTSE futures were flat. MORE RATE HIKES COMING The retreat in equities last month provided a reprieve to safe-haven bonds, with investors wondering if a sustained selloff in the stock market could deter the Federal Reserve from hiking interest rates in December. (0#USDIRPR) Futures still imply a 72% chance of a quarter-point rate rise, but now only have 55 basis points of total tightening priced in compared to more than 70 basis points a month ago. Yields on 10-year Treasuries US10Y held at 4.931%, well off their October peak of 5.3645%, while 2-year yields (US2YT=RR) stood at 4.612%. Treasury will announce its quarterly refunding plans on Wednesday, which could see more issuance at the shorter end of the curve. Among central banks meeting this week, markets are wagering on hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England and Riksbank, while the Norges Bank is seen on hold. Economic data due this week includes the influential US ISM survey of manufacturing for October later on Monday, while the all-important payrolls report is on Friday. Median forecasts are for a 65,000 rise in jobs, after September's disappointing 29,000 gain, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. In currency markets, the majors were pretty much sidelined while all the action was concentrated in stocks. The euro was a shade firmer at $1.1169 EURUSD , while the dollar was barely changed at 157.75 yen USDJPY . Non-interest-bearing gold bounced 0.9% to $3,911 an ounce GOLD , having fallen 6.8% last month amid talk some investors were having to sell to cover margin calls on equities.

@FirstSquawk: Shares of Samsung Electronics jump 3%.

@FirstSquawk: Xi says strengthening China-Oman relations is strategically important for both countries.

@FirstSquawk: National Bank of Canada lifts its price target on Canadian National Railway to C$194 from C$190.

investingLive Asia-Pacific market news: Oil eases on Doha talks

【最新内容：unusual_whales @unusual_whales · 2026-11-02T04:31:00.000Z】 A pardon for a Venezuelan billionaire followed a $50 million deal between his daughter and Trump's former lawyer, and Trump is reportedly furious about it. Read more: [链接预览] unusualwhales.com Venezuelan billionaire pardoned by Trump after daughter's $50M deal with Alina Habba, per NYT Venezuelan billionaire Julio Herrera Velutini, charged in a 2022 federal bribery case tied to a former Puerto Rico governor, received a pardon from President Trump not long after his daughter gave... 【回复上下文：unusual_whales @unusual_whales · 2026-10-30T14:57:00.000Z】 BREAKING: Trump is furious that his former lawyer Alina Habba Mildon landed a $50 million+ contract from the family of a Venezuelan billionaire he later pardoned, per The New York Times. While advising the Justice Department, Habba Mildon signed a four-year, $10 million-a-year deal to serve as general counsel for a company founded by the daughter of Julio Herrera Velutini. Herrera was seeking a pardon at the time, after a lenient plea deal had reduced felony bribery charges to a misdemeanor, and his daughter had given $3.5 million to a Trump-aligned super PAC. Habba Mildon started on Jan. 1. Weeks later, Trump granted Herrera a full pardon. Trump’s response: he’s told aides she should donate part of the money to his presidential library, and told an ally the family shouldn’t pay out the rest of the contract.

@FirstSquawk: South Korea's Defense Ministry Establishes New Drone Command to Strengthen Unmanned Capabilities Amid North Korean Threats - YONHAP

Taiwan And Japan Eye Trade Deal Akin To Taipei-London Pact, Sources Say – Nikkei [链接预览] asia.nikkei.com Taiwan and Japan eye trade deal akin to Taipei-London pact, sources say Broad framework designed to 'minimize political sensitivity' amid China pressure

@FirstSquawk: NZ Dollar Weakens as Markets React to China's Manufacturing PMI Data - FX

Why Are So Many Countries Suddenly Warning Their Citizens To Prepare For An Emergency And Stockpile Essential Survival Supplies? [链接预览] Why Are So Many Countries Suddenly Warning Their Citizens To Prepare For An Emergency And Stockpile...

@FirstSquawk: Japanese Firms Step Up Gas Supply Deals, Committing $21 Billion - FT

Gold’s slide to one-year low: margin calls amplified a fall driven by Fed hike bets

@FirstSquawk: Seoul and Tokyo Set to Discuss North Korea and Bilateral Issues at Vice Foreign Minister-Level Meeting - YONHAP

【最新内容：unusual_whales @unusual_whales · 2026-11-02T04:01:00.000Z】 Trump has put a price on a Republican Congress: $5,000 for every adult citizen, paid for, he says, by tariff money. Read more: [链接预览] unusualwhales.com Trump promises $5,000 if Republicans win the House and Senate on November 3 President Trump told voters that electing a Republican House and Senate on November 3 comes with $5,000, and warned that if Republicans lose, voters get nothing, the starkest version yet of his... 【回复上下文：unusual_whales @unusual_whales · 2026-10-30T14:37:00.000Z】 Trump promises a $5,000 payment to every adult US citizen if Republicans win both the House and Senate. He estimates the payments would cost about $1 trillion, with tariff revenue helping to pay for it. Note: there are roughly 235 million adult US citizens, so $5,000 each comes to about $1.2 trillion

【最新内容：investingLive @investingLive_ · 2026-11-02T03:57:35.000Z】 Outstanding! 😂 【引用内容：zerohedge @zerohedge · 2026-11-02T03:55:26.000Z】 Chinese Company Develops $1,000 AI-Powered Laser System To Kill Mosquitoes https://zerohedge.com/markets/chinese-company-develops-1000-ai-powered-laser-system-kill-mosquitoes…

@FirstSquawk: Goldman Sees BOE Keeping Rates Unchanged at 4.25% Until Mid-2027, Then Cutting Quarterly From Q4 2027 to a 3.25% Terminal Rate

@FirstSquawk: Goldman Sachs Expects BOE to Raise Rates by 25 BPS in February 2027, With Peak Rate at 4.25%

@FirstSquawk: Singapore Stocks Slide as the Benchmark Index Hits a Low of 5,262.85 Since July 7